pmUSD Climbs as USDT Drains

pmUSD set the week's tone, widening from 2,872 bps on June 6 to 3,497 bps by June 8 across a $65-71M float, three consecutive critical readings on the Weekly Risk Leaderboard. PSI compressed from 95 to 91.2, with the midpoint falling 3.8 points week-over-week, though BEDROCK still held for the 76th day. The worst print, 89.1 on June 7, was the lowest STEADY reading in 61 days.

The mid-week protagonist was apxUSD. A 147 bps drift on June 3 escalated to 855 bps active and 967 bps resolved across 62 hours, cycling through WATCH, ALERT, and back to WARNING on $400-500M of float. Mint/burn intensity hit -100 on June 3 and again on June 4 at -$22.76M net, while cross-source divergence kept the DEWS score between 42 and 50 for three days running.

XAUT and PAXG ran a separate experiment in counter-narrative. XAUT paid between 0.59% and 0.87% APY across the week against PAXG's 12.92%, a fifteenfold gap on identical underlying metal. USDG joined the anomaly list at 12.52% APY versus a 6.05% 30-day baseline. USTB, for its part, recovered from its B- to C downgrade on June 2 back to C+ by June 5, retracing $900M of grade noise.

USDT supply flows told the steadier story. USDT shed between $1.28B and $1.91B every single day, totaling roughly $10.7B in net weekly outflows, while aggregate mcap fell only 1.06% to $345.70B. Blacklist activity nearly tripled, $62.57M across 113 events versus $23.38M prior, almost entirely USDT on Tron. The Bank Run Gauge inverted to -49.7 on June 2 before settling to a -12.2 midpoint, more than twice as negative as last week's -5.4.

The deterministic trigger for pmUSD sits at 3,725 bps; with 78 active depeg observations consolidating into 25 unique signals and DEWS holding 15 names at ALERT or worse on $4.54B of affected mcap, next week decides whether pmUSD breaches that line or whether the apxUSD pattern repeats on a larger float.