Executive Summary
USDC led every session's outflows, peaking at -$2.16B, yet PSI held BEDROCK at 92.8. Rotation, not a run: mcap slipped just 0.42% while pmUSD's critical shelf stayed put and the gauge bottomed at -28.7.
USDC was the week's largest supply mover on all seven days, cresting at minus $2.16B on July 30 and never lighter than minus $818M. Against that, PSI opened at 92.3 and closed at 92.8, holding BEDROCK the full week and dipping only to 91.9 on August 2. The aggregate cap fell 0.42% to $315.06B, so the largest single-name outflow in the book barely registered on the index.
The drain read like a metronome rather than a spasm: seven consecutive sessions with USDC as the single largest mover, the mildest still minus $818M. That steady exit dwarfed the $1.33B the whole complex shed in cap, the tell that this was rotation, not a run. Alongside it, pmUSD held its critical shelf all week, grinding from 6,384 to 5,135 bps below peg on a $45.74M float, a wound that predates this recap. USDA supplied the only fresh cut, sliding another 476 bps deeper on August 2.
While outflows built, enforcement moved the other way: blacklist events fell to 90 from 174, freezing $16.16M against the prior $32.17M. Unique depeg signals thinned from 15 to 11, even as raw observations crept to 109. The countercurrent was the report card: grade transitions jumped to 5 from zero, with EURC cut A to B on $455.14M and fxSAVE whipsawing C+ to F to C+ across August 2 and 3.
Capital drifted rather than fled; market cap slipped 0.82% week over week while USDT idled near $183B. The Bank Run Gauge told the colder story, its midpoint sliding to -6.8 from -1.8 and bottoming at -28.7 on July 29. USDT's advertised yield lurched from 0.44% to 5.94% across the week, every reading tagged evidence-missing. The forward board closed 17 hit and 0 missed, with 4 triggers still pending.
Next week decides whether USDC's seven-session bleed is a redemption cycle or a directional trend, and whether PSI can defend 91.9 for a 42nd BEDROCK day. The next trigger is pmUSD widening back past 6,384 bps, or satUSD's exit, already a 180-to-1 float-to-liquidity gap, closing to nothing.