Executive Summary
USDT's yield warning hit 4.81% APY on four of seven sessions with TVL leaving $183.29B. USDC redeemed over $1B twice yet ended down only $76.01M. Blacklists fell to 129 events from 656. PSI held BEDROCK.
USDT's yield warning was the week's largest unsuppressed signal, printing on four of seven sessions and closing 09-21 at 4.81% APY against a 30-day average of 4.66% on $183.29B of supply. Each print carried a tvl-outflow driver, a quoted rate rising while deposits left. PSI stayed inside BEDROCK on all seven days, 92.2 to 92.9, and the 92.5 weekly midpoint sits 0.7 above the prior week's 91.8.
USDC ran the thread through the middle of the week. Supply accelerated lower on 09-18 at -$1.05B and again on 09-20 at -$1.09B, with USDC the largest weekly mover on three separate days. The seven-day net still came to -$76.01M, and 09-21 added +$901.94M back. Two sessions above $1B of redemptions that net to almost nothing describe rotation between venues at a $74.37B float, though the 09-15 yield reading of 3.29% APY against a 30-day average of 4.78% gives holders less reason to sit still.
Blacklist enforcement moved the opposite way, down roughly 80% by count. Actions fell to 129 events worth $20.54M from 656 events and $40.06M a week earlier, the largest single item $2.95M of USDT on Tron. Active depeg observations eased to 137 from 152 while unique signals held at 8, so the same short list was re-observed daily. pmUSD remained the standing critical case at 5485 bps below peg on $48.06M, carried in from prior weeks alongside USDA, USDX and cNGN.
Aggregate supply barely moved, $319.59B to $318.94B, a 0.20% decline. The visible damage sat in tokenized treasuries: BUIDL shed $421.81M over seven days, USTB fell from B to C on $526.73M with yield at 2.32% APY against a 30-day average of 6.02%, and ONyc dropped out of the graded set at $105.78M. XAUT climbed to A- at $2.71B despite yield at 0.61%. Five grade transitions followed a week with none. The Bank Run Gauge bottomed at -41 on 09-16, midpoint -12.0 against -9.7.
Daily triggers resolved 2 hit, 15 missed, 1 expired and 3 pending, a weak score driven by thresholds that assumed the USDC outflow would persist past 09-20 when it reversed inside a session. The first test next week is whether USDC prints a third move beyond $1B in either direction, which would convert a flat seven-day net into a trend. The second is whether USDT's tvl-outflow flag reaches a fifth consecutive session above 4.80% APY, and the third is whether a second treasury-backed name follows USTB down a tier.