Depeg Duration Resolver Changelog
Full version history of DDR methodology decisions, from v1.0 to v1.0.
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Latest Version
v1.0May 25, 2026
Initial Depeg Duration Resolver
Launched the two-stage Depeg Duration Resolver: a mechanistic Resolution Outlook (terminal vs recoverable) and a stratified empirical duration estimate over recovered historical incidents.
Impact Snapshot
- Stage 1 emits an ordinal verdict (recovery_likely / at_risk / recovery_unlikely / insufficient_signal) from kill signals and recovery anchors over structural metadata and the live depeg fingerprint
- Stage 2 emits a depth/direction/structural-class stratified landmark estimate with per-horizon (6h/24h/7d/30d) resolution likelihood, support-gated and Wilson-bounded
- Verdicts are calibrated domain reads, not fitted probabilities; audit-verdict gating is not used because event provenance is unpopulated
v1.0May 25, 2026Initial Depeg Duration Resolver
Launched the two-stage Depeg Duration Resolver: a mechanistic Resolution Outlook (terminal vs recoverable) and a stratified empirical duration estimate over recovered historical incidents.
- Stage 1 emits an ordinal verdict (recovery_likely / at_risk / recovery_unlikely / insufficient_signal) from kill signals and recovery anchors over structural metadata and the live depeg fingerprint
- Stage 2 emits a depth/direction/structural-class stratified landmark estimate with per-horizon (6h/24h/7d/30d) resolution likelihood, support-gated and Wilson-bounded
- Verdicts are calibrated domain reads, not fitted probabilities; audit-verdict gating is not used because event provenance is unpopulated
DetailsHide details
v1.0May 25, 2026
Initial Depeg Duration Resolver
Launched the two-stage Depeg Duration Resolver: a mechanistic Resolution Outlook (terminal vs recoverable) and a stratified empirical duration estimate over recovered historical incidents.
- Stage 1 emits an ordinal verdict (recovery_likely / at_risk / recovery_unlikely / insufficient_signal) from kill signals and recovery anchors over structural metadata and the live depeg fingerprint
- Stage 2 emits a depth/direction/structural-class stratified landmark estimate with per-horizon (6h/24h/7d/30d) resolution likelihood, support-gated and Wilson-bounded
- Verdicts are calibrated domain reads, not fitted probabilities; audit-verdict gating is not used because event provenance is unpopulated
Impact Notes
- Stage 1 emits an ordinal verdict (recovery_likely / at_risk / recovery_unlikely / insufficient_signal) from kill signals and recovery anchors over structural metadata and the live depeg fingerprint
- Stage 2 emits a depth/direction/structural-class stratified landmark estimate with per-horizon (6h/24h/7d/30d) resolution likelihood, support-gated and Wilson-bounded
- Verdicts are calibrated domain reads, not fitted probabilities; audit-verdict gating is not used because event provenance is unpopulated
Commit provenance not recorded