---
title: "Depeg Duration Resolver Changelog"
canonical: "https://pharos.watch/methodology/depeg-resolver-changelog/"
description: "Depeg Duration Resolver Changelog - Pharos methodology version history."
---

# Depeg Duration Resolver Changelog

## v3.04 - Rollout Coverage Boundary Review

**Effective:** 2026-06-29

DDRR now treats rollout-active incidents whose reliable recovery or terminal evidence predates the DDRv2 public prediction contract as pre-lock coverage outcomes instead of live missed-lock debt.

- Coverage classification for incidents already active when DDRv2 was enabled is floored at the DDRv2 public-contract effective timestamp
- Historical terminal evidence before that boundary becomes terminal_before_prediction, not missed_lock_terminal
- The reviewer engine advances to ddr-reviewer-v3 so cached review snapshots are rebuilt under the corrected public audit contract

## v3.03 - DDRR-Calibrated Stage 1 Terminality

**Effective:** 2026-06-29

Uses reviewed DDRR outcomes to calibrate Stage 1 terminality: recent compromised/unbacked mint incidents now feed K1, while static very-high reserve concentration becomes severe K2 only when paired with a severe below-peg fingerprint or observed dependency impairment.

- Recent registry-reviewed mint-authority incidents can make K1 supply weaponization fire even when daily supply history misses the mint path
- Very-high-risk reserve concentration is elevated by default and severe only with a severe/catastrophic below-peg break or a frozen/dead dependency
- Stage 2 duration remains on duration-landmark-v1 because the DDRR duration sample is still too small and clustered for a fitted retune

## v3.02 - Close-gap Tail Grouping and Superseded Alias Review

**Effective:** 2026-06-19

DDR incident grouping now treats live reopens inside the documented close-gap merge window as the same canonical incident even when the original start is days old, and DDRR follows superseded duplicate aliases to the current source event.

- Sealed live tails can be adopted when they reopen within 6 hours of the prior current source event closing
- Duplicate sealed incidents can be superseded through append-only errata and lineage while downstream reads resolve to the canonical incident key
- DDRR evaluates repaired canonical predictions against the effective current source event instead of scoring an older closed fragment as recovered
- The APXUSD June 2026 duplicate prediction is invalidated and treated as an alias of the unresolved June 2 incident

## v3.01 - Live Context Input Wiring

**Effective:** 2026-06-06

Wired Stage 1's documented live-context inputs into the Worker DDR precompute path.

- Uses fresh DEWS sub-signals to derive bank-run and blacklist-surge inputs for K5 and K3
- Uses the same 7-day DEX TVL baseline selection as the liquidity API for K5 exit-collapse checks
- Hydrates the latest Safety Score history row so R5 mean-reversion anchors and related context use live report-card data
- Marks DDR runs degraded when these required context-source queries fail instead of scoring with silently absent inputs

## v3.0 - Forecast Readiness Contract

**Effective:** 2026-06-04

Added the shared DDR forecast-readiness contract for readiness-gated locks with immutable public metadata.

- Introduces the readiness-72h-v1 forecast-readiness version and a strict early-lock threshold
- Publishes row-level readiness components and reasons as forecast readiness, not a probability or confidence label
- Adds optional/defaulted lock trigger, readiness, and 72h backstop metadata to the public contract while preserving legacy rows
- Includes new immutable readiness metadata in public row hash payloads when present

## v2.0 - Sticky Public Prediction Contract

**Effective:** 2026-05-27

Replaced live DDR drift with DDRv2: one immutable public prediction or no-call at the 24h lock landmark, backed by manifest publication and append-only errata.

- Freezes one official public_prediction outcome per canonical incident key instead of recomputing public forecasts every run
- Adds pending, lock-deferred, publication-retry, no-call, frozen, and invalidated public states with live facts separated from frozen prediction payloads
- Anchors duration estimates to the lock timestamp and preserves frozen fields on stale responses while marking live overlays stale
- Moves DDRR accountability to first-published sealed outcomes and explicit coverage states rather than mutable latest snapshots

## v1.1 - Depeg Duration Resolver Reviewer

**Effective:** 2026-05-25

Added the Depeg Duration Resolver Reviewer (DDRR), the audit layer that scores stored DDR assessments against later canonical depeg-event outcomes.

- Stores quarter-hourly DDR assessment checkpoints and reviews the first checkpoint for each event under the current methodology
- Publishes recovery-likelihood accuracy and average observed-minus-DDR recovery-duration error on /depeg/ and GET /api/depeg-resolver-review
- Keeps pending, insufficient-signal, and data-issue rows visible while excluding them from scored headline accuracy
- Removes terminal-lifecycle assets from live DDR readouts while DDRR scores their stored predictions as terminal outcomes

## v1.0 - Initial Depeg Duration Resolver

**Effective:** 2026-05-25

Launched the two-stage Depeg Duration Resolver: a mechanistic Resolution Outlook (terminal vs recoverable) and a stratified empirical duration estimate over recovered historical incidents.

- Stage 1 emits an ordinal verdict (recovery_likely / at_risk / recovery_unlikely / insufficient_signal) from kill signals and recovery anchors over structural metadata and the live depeg fingerprint
- Stage 2 emits a depth/direction/structural-class stratified landmark estimate with per-horizon (6h/24h/7d/30d) resolution likelihood, support-gated and Wilson-bounded
- Verdicts are calibrated domain reads, not fitted probabilities; audit-verdict gating is not used because event provenance is unpopulated