Executive Summary
PSI 89.7, STEADY. KAU recovered from 606 bps in 15h on $420M, then re-depegged to 913 bps. USDC and USDT both reversed to net negative yesterday after a combined $2.44B weekly gain. PYUSD moved the other direction.
PSI holds at 89.7 in STEADY for the second consecutive session, severity at 0.41, breadth at 11.47. The number has not moved, but the composition underneath it has: 12 active depegs, breadth nearly at 12, and a severity reading nearly five times last week's floor. STEADY is not the same as static.
KAU is the main event, and it is not finished. The gold-backed coin recovered from 606 bps after 15 hours on its $419.79M float, then promptly re-depegged to 913 bps, its worst reading yet. KAG cleaned up two separate events of 229 and 222 bps on $307.44M inside a combined 3 hours, suggesting the recovery mechanism works at smaller amplitudes. At 913 bps on $420M, KAU is testing whether it also works when the problem is larger. Its C safety grade and peg score of 72 suggest some structural skepticism is warranted.
The supply reversals are worth a second look. USDC shed $59.11M yesterday after adding $2.00B across the week, and USDT flipped negative at $9.45M daily after a $443M weekly run. Both of the market's two largest coins exhaled on the same day, while PYUSD, at $73M and rated B, reversed from a $67M weekly drain to fresh net minting. One large coin zigging while two larger ones zag is the kind of quiet divergence that tends to look obvious in retrospect.