Executive Summary
BUIDL flipped CALM to WATCH on supply velocity while USDS shed over $900M a day for five sessions. PSI held BEDROCK at 94.6 before closing at an eight-day low. A scheduled redemption, not a run.
BUIDL, the $2.88B tokenized-treasury fund, posted the loudest new signal of the week: a CALM-to-WATCH flip on supply velocity, severity 2902.8, the top of an otherwise sedate leaderboard. It did not commit to the move, flipping WATCH back to CALM at score 7 before slipping out again at score 19, a fund that cannot decide whether it is nervous. PSI spent all seven days in BEDROCK, midpoint 94.6 and up 2.5 points on the prior week, before closing at a 92.5 eight-day low on July 20.
The thread that actually ran the week was USDS. It was the single largest weekly mover on five of seven days, shedding between $897.40M and $924.74M each session, a drain flagged as accelerating and never once reversed. A drain of roughly $900M a day is not a run; it is a standing redemption order, executed on schedule. Total market cap fell 4.79% to $317.91B, most of it gone in one step around July 16.
The counter-move was broad de-escalation: USDT added $1.20B on July 15, grade transitions fell to 10 from 29, and blacklist dollars collapsed to $13.48M from $67.36M the prior week. Liquidity reshuffled rather than fled: USD0 gained 16 points and YLDS 14 while USDD shed 8, depth changing hands across mid-caps. A7A5 churned its own CALM-WATCH boundary on cross-source divergence, noise rather than outflow.
Standing conditions held their posts: apxUSD stuck at 3159 bps on a shrinking $297M, pmUSD at 5568 bps, and USX pinned near $0.39 well past its 600th hour, chronic depegs the aggregate has priced in. The Bank Run Gauge widened from -11.9 to 29, midpoint up to 11.4 from 6.7, and USDT again flashed a 7.73% best yield with no evidence behind it.
The forward-look board closed 4 hit, 5 missed, 7 pending; the misses outnumbered the hits, and the syrupUSDT names that shed 26% of TVL were not the ones we flagged. Next week decides whether USDS's daily $900M redemption finds a floor or whether BUIDL's WATCH hardens into the ALERT the $528M DEWS ceiling already touched.