Executive Summary
USDT logged $3.99B of net burns in 24h while the gauge fell from -18.3 to -72; PSI rose to 87.1 and DEWS ALERT counts eased. Next trigger: a gauge print of -80 or lower.
The Bank Run Gauge fell to -72 from -18.3, entering its CRISIS band, across the 24 closed hours to 06:00 UTC. In the same window USDT logged $3.99B of net burns, an intensity of -100 against its 30-day baseline. USDT carries 69.2% of the gauge's scored weight, though no per-coin contribution is supplied. Valuation is partial and flight-to-quality is inactive. Yesterday's -25 trigger was crossed by 47 points.
Supply velocity shows a smaller decline. USDT outstanding fell $2.31B in one day and $3.00B over seven, to $178.80B, 6% short of the $189.76B peak set on 26 April. Pharos flags the burn reading as unconfirmed against supply, and nothing in the evidence establishes a cause. Ethereum accounted for -$3.66B of net flow across tracked coins.
The other stress readings moved the opposite way. PSI rose to 87.1 from 86.9, a fifth STEADY day. Among its three listed severity contributors, USDf carries the highest impact, 124.9, at 76 bps below peg on $1.67B. DEWS shows no coin at WARNING against one yesterday, and ALERT fell to nine from 10, on $329.71M of supply after 40 band changes. pmUSD trades at $0.582, 4,177 bps below peg, with no material change.
Two thresholds come next. A gauge print of -80 or lower, eight points under today's, would deepen the CRISIS reading. A one-day USDT supply move of $3B, about $690M beyond the latest print, would read as rotation rather than drift.