Depeg Tracker + DEWS Changelog

Impact Notes

• Small-cap, multi-source, extreme, direction-change, and native-currency onsets all enter `depeg_pending`; no source combination bypasses the 15-minute temporal window
• Secondary confirmation uses the full trigger threshold, and DefiLlama's `coingecko:{id}` mirror no longer counts as independent evidence for a CoinGecko-family primary
• Live recovery begins only within 50% of the trigger threshold and persists `recovery_first_seen_at`; deadband or renewed-depeg observations reset the timer before closure
• Trigger comparisons use unrounded basis-point deviation while persisted and displayed values remain rounded
• Telegram depeg dispatch deduplicates at stablecoin incident level and formats native-domain EUR, GBP, and JPY prices in their stored currency

Impact Notes

• Live fiat FX references take precedence over peer medians for detector, peg-summary, detail, and feedback-verification paths; peer medians remain a fail-closed fallback requiring at least three contributors
• Feedback verification uses the same 100 bps USD and 150 bps non-USD threshold policy as live depeg detection
• Reviewed replay coverage can explicitly set a coin's PegScore denominator; BRLA coverage begins at the audited 2026-06-28 replay window instead of implying stable history before Pharos observation
• Peg summary publishes current reference evidence, coverage provenance, and a coverage-aware recent 90-day view
• Stablecoin history and API responses distinguish public incidents from their constituent threshold-crossing rows

Impact Notes

• Native-quote events update peaks only from subsequent native quotes against the stored `1.0` peg reference
• A recovered native quote closes the event with `recovered-native` and the same-domain native recovery price
• When only a USD primary or DEX recovery is available, the event can still close but persists `recovery_price = NULL` rather than mixing quote units
• The known BRLA event 90509 mixed-unit recovery value is cleared through a guarded data migration

Impact Notes

• Direct native CoinGecko quotes remain able to veto, sustain, and resolve non-USD depeg rows; they can now also initiate the row when they are the clearest fresh signal
• Small and mid-cap native-quote events open immediately with the native quote stored against a `1.0` peg reference, matching the historical native-fiat replay model
• Large-cap or extreme native-quote triggers still route through `depeg_pending` before public event creation
• This prevents BRL peer medians from masking true BRLA/BRL discounts while preserving the existing 150 bps non-USD threshold

Impact Notes

• A mature 30-day baseline no longer produces available zero flow stress when the mint/burn pipeline has no fresh 24-hour row
• Fresh zero-volume 24-hour rows still contribute zero flow stress when the source is current
• Stale mint/burn hourly input is recorded as a `mint-burn-hourly-freshness` source failure and surfaced through `sourceAges.mintBurn` and `staleFlags.mintBurn`
• `flowBaselineDays` remains the baseline coverage diagnostic, while `flowDataAgeDays` now reports true mint/burn source freshness age in days

Impact Notes

• Single-source or same-family extreme prints still route through `depeg_pending` before public event creation
• Fresh severe moves with at least two independent primary depeg source families, such as CoinGecko plus DefiLlama, can open a live event immediately below the $1B large-cap floor
• Large-cap assets still require the existing pending-confirmation path even when the severe move is multi-source
• The change prevents confirmed small- and mid-cap crashes from being hidden until DEX confirmation catches up

Impact Notes

• A single high-TVL pool (>= $5M) or at least two independent protocol/source-family pool groups can veto primary-price recovery closure
• This covers cases where aggregate off-chain prices briefly print near peg while a large venue remains materially depegged
• Small single-pool disagreements remain advisory and do not block authoritative primary recovery by themselves
• The change hardens long-running incidents such as the APXUSD June 2026 underpeg against transient near-$1 blips

Impact Notes

• Authoritative primary recovery still closes an event when there is no qualifying DEX contradiction
• When trusted aggregate DEX price and at least two protocol groups still cross the threshold in the existing event direction, the event remains open and the contradictory recovery is logged
• This prevents brief off-chain or consensus near-peg prints from splitting unresolved long-running incidents such as the APXUSD June 2026 underpeg
• DEX-confirmed recoveries remain supported: ambiguous primary recoveries can still close when aggregate DEX and enough protocol groups are back inside threshold with no challenger contradiction

Impact Notes

• The `structured-high-risk-venue` (+25) and `structured-medium-risk-venue` (+10) branches are unchanged, but `sourceRisk.venueRiskTier` is now derived from a 5-category Yearn-style score across 61 venues instead of 12 hand-set tiers
• Newly-scored high-risk venues (e.g. Clearpool, Goldfinch, 3Jane, Aries Markets, Curvance, Avantis) now contribute `structured-high-risk-venue` to the Yield Anomaly sub-signal for coins routing yield through them
• Newly-scored medium-risk venues (e.g. Fluid, Dolomite, Fraxlend v2, Felix, Centrifuge, Jupiter Lend, Sovryn) now contribute `structured-medium-risk-venue`
• Reviewer-set cross-venue dependency concentration raises the source-risk penalty, which can cross the existing +20 `structured-source-risk-penalty` threshold for affected rows
• No DEWS code, weight, threshold, or cap changed; unknown/low venues remain a no-op

Impact Notes

• A lone non-USD coin's peer-median reference equals its own price (deviation always ~0) and a 2-coin group mirrors half of any real move onto the healthy peer; detection has always failed closed on these, but peg-summary, the depeg tracker, and the coin-detail hero kept publishing the masked number
• When the gate fails, currentDeviationBps is withheld (null) and the new pegReferenceUnavailable flag drives an explicit 'reference unavailable' readout in the tracker table and detail hero
• USD, commodity, VAR/OTHER pegs and groups with a live FX fallback or at least 3 peer contributors are unaffected
• Depeg detection, PegScore, and event history are unchanged — this aligns the displayed numbers with the detection engine's existing trust policy

Impact Notes

• Structured Yield Intelligence evidence with `sourceRisk.venueRiskTier = "medium"` now adds +10 to the Yield Anomaly sub-signal
• Medium venue-risk rows emit the `structured-medium-risk-venue` warning
• The existing high-risk venue branch remains +25 with `structured-high-risk-venue`
• The final Yield Anomaly sub-signal still caps at 100 after adding warning-string, source-risk, and rank-attribution evidence
• Missing, malformed, unknown, low, or otherwise neutral venue-risk evidence remains a no-op and does not create an available zero-stress yield signal

Impact Notes

• Thin non-USD fiat peg references without FX fallback use the stored pending `peg_reference` when valid instead of recomputing confirmation against a 1-2 coin peer median
• Pending rows with neither an authoritative refreshed reference nor a valid stored reference wait for a safer reference instead of being deleted or promoted
• Duplicate open-event repair merges only same-direction rows and closes older opposite-direction rows at the newer direction boundary with `recovery_price = NULL`

Impact Notes

• Coins with no prior supply-history anchors no longer receive an available zero-stress supply signal by default
• When only one prior anchor is present, DEWS still computes the available side and treats the missing side as zero velocity contribution
• Explicit finite zero anchors remain available and continue to produce zero velocity stress instead of divide-by-zero behavior

Impact Notes

• A coin that depegged above the live-event floor no longer stays LIVE forever after supply shrinks below $1M
• Below-floor closures keep `recovery_price = NULL`, matching other coverage-lost closures where Pharos cannot assert a price recovery
• New below-floor coins still cannot open fresh live depeg rows; the change only resolves existing open rows whose coverage leaves the live-event universe

Impact Notes

• Blacklist counts are hydrated from event provenance (`config_key` / `contract_address`) instead of being grouped by bare symbol
• Same-symbol siblings that do not have direct blacklist-tracker coverage now keep the blacklist sub-signal unavailable
• Legacy event rows without provenance fall back only to a single tracker-owned stablecoin id for that symbol, avoiding fan-out across same-symbol PSI assets

Impact Notes

• Absent previous-day or previous-week supply history still defaults to the current supply so new or incomplete rows do not create false contraction
• Finite zero buckets in the stablecoins cache now remain zero when the supply-velocity input is assembled
• The supply sub-signal continues to treat zero baselines as zero velocity stress, avoiding divide-by-zero while keeping the input provenance explicit

Impact Notes

• Curated launch dates remain the preferred tracking anchor, followed by the earliest supply_history snapshot
• For priced assets without either anchor, the stablecoins cache now contributes a durable first-observed valid-price timestamp through the same first-seen cache used by PegScore
• Newly observed priced assets still need at least 7 days of tracking before PegScore is rated; missing-price assets and pure NAV tokens remain NR
• Low-cap assets below the live depeg-event floor can receive a PegScore anchor, while the existing coverage-limited flag continues to warn that empty event history is not full depeg coverage

Impact Notes

• Backfill runs persist replay status, counts, fingerprints, source providers, quote mode, peg-reference/supply source, confidence tier, and public provenance projections
• Audit verdicts are direction-aware and persist confirmed, disputed, false_positive, no_data, and repaired-style outcomes without deleting rows solely because audit data is weak or absent
• PegScore excludes false-positive/disputed events and downweights low-confidence rows while surfacing quality-adjustment counters to callers
• DEWS calibration metrics now use stored stress_signal_history as the primary source and report precision, recall, false-positive days, false-negative incidents, lead-time percentiles, churn, and cohorts

Impact Notes

• The `yield` sub-signal can now score populated `sourceRisk.rewardShare`, `sourceRisk.sourceDepthRatio`, `sourceRisk.sourceAgeSeconds`, `sourceRisk.sourceSwitchCount30d`, `sourceRisk.sourceRiskPenalty`, high reviewed `venueRiskTier`, and rank-attribution source-risk/source-switch drivers
• Structured yield evidence is additive with existing `yield_data.warning_signals` and still caps the Yield Anomaly sub-signal at 100
• Neutral structured rows do not become available zero-stress signals, so missing or neutral evidence does not dilute the DEWS weighted average
• The DEWS source-state loader reads structured evidence from the published `yield-rankings` cache and preserves legacy warning-only behavior when that cache is missing or malformed

Impact Notes

• Composite labels such as `coingecko+geckoterminal` are expanded before source-family checks, so they no longer behave like unknown standalone sources
• CoinGecko variants, DefiLlama list/detail/contract variants, and CoinMarketCap-style list aggregators remain correlated families for confirmation and severe-downside corroboration
• Fallback/search lanes remain non-authoritative, while hard market, oracle, protocol, and promoted DEX protocol lanes keep explicit registry-backed families

Impact Notes

• CoinGecko/DefiLlama off-chain confirmation is selected from the primary agreeSources family set, so same-family circular evidence cannot promote large-cap pending rows on its own
• Aggregate DEX confirmation requires at least two fresh protocol groups, and pool challengers count distinct protocol/source-family groups while preserving the documented >= $5M single-pool exception
• Promoted pending rows use refreshed peg references, canonical confirmation_sources keys, and the worst trustworthy confirmer price when setting peak severity
• Backfill dry-runs and mutating runs now agree when a trusted replay finds zero events: stale source='backfill' rows are previewed and then deleted
• Historical replay applies the live supply floor from historical supply or current stablecoins-cache supply; when both are absent, existing backfill rows are preserved

Impact Notes

• WARS (ARS) live and pending depeg checks can use fresh native CoinGecko quotes before trusting USD/FX-derived divergence on its own
• KGST (KGS) depeg checks use the secondary daily FX mirror and hardcoded validation bounds rather than an unsupported CoinGecko KGS quote
• Historical replay behavior is unchanged except that assets with native ARS market history can prefer that direct native series when available

Impact Notes

• A tracked stablecoin entering DANGER/WARNING now raises other same-peg-type coins by up to 15% under current constants (1.15x / 1.08x); the amplifier is defensively capped at 20%
• First-pass coins that themselves are DANGER/WARNING do not contagion-amplify themselves
• Amplifier is clamped, explainable (no learned weights), and surfaced on /api/stress-signals as amplifiers.contagion

Impact Notes

• Single-pool manipulation can no longer unilaterally promote a pending depeg (bar = 2 pools OR one pool with >= $5M TVL)
• A worker interruption during backfill no longer leaves a coin with zero depeg rows
• A CoinGecko/DefiLlama outage no longer hammers the endpoint for 45 min per pending row
• Promoted events carry confirmation_sources (e.g. 'DEX+CEX') and pending_reason (e.g. 'large-cap+low-confidence') for ex-post diagnostics
• DEWS liquidity sub-signal fails closed when both 7-day anchors are missing instead of silently contributing 0

Impact Notes

• The shared supported blacklist symbol set now includes the direct EVM coverage wave
• DEWS remains coupled to that shared live tracker set instead of maintaining a separate symbol list
• Non-USD amount valuation remains owned by the blacklist tracker; DEWS uses event counts only

Impact Notes

• The shared supported blacklist symbol set now includes USDG, RLUSD, U, USDTB, and A7A5
• DEWS continues to derive blacklist-signal eligibility from that shared set instead of maintaining a separate list
• A7A5's blacklist signal can participate as event-count stress only; non-USD amount valuation remains owned by the blacklist tracker ledger

Impact Notes

• The aggregate `/api/stress-signals` response preserves `updatedAt` as the newest row used for freshness headers while adding `oldestComputedAt` as a body-only lag diagnostic
• The DEWS cron now retires current `stress_signals` rows for PSI-eligible assets that are explicitly present in the stablecoins cache with zero current supply, without deleting daily history
• Last-valid cached rows still remain available for coins that have positive current supply but insufficient signal coverage in an individual cycle

Impact Notes

• Pending rows are now refreshed while they wait for confirmation, preserving first-seen timestamps but updating last-seen and worst-seen state for the active direction
• Pending confirmation now treats opposite-side secondary evidence as contradiction instead of support, and native-quote recovery no longer persists contradictory `recovery_price` values
• DEWS divergence now ignores fresh-but-thin DEX rows unless they pass the same `$1M` live depeg trust gate, while the repair path refreshes current rows and prunes unrecomputable daily history from the Mar 9, 2026 trust-floor boundary onward

Impact Notes

• Historical native-fiat replay now uses daily points plus a two-point confirmation window across 36 hours before opening normal non-USD fiat backfill events
• Extreme single-point native crashes of 5,000 bps or more are still preserved even when the native historical confirmation rule would otherwise suppress them
• Broad non-USD backfill repairs can now use authenticated CoinGecko market-chart transport consistently through the admin/backfill path, reducing false rebuild drift during large historical cleanups

Impact Notes

• PegScore now uses a curated launch date as the age anchor when one is available, falling back to earliest supply-history coverage only when no launch date is curated
• Older tracked assets with late `supply_history` coverage no longer appear artificially young in the peg-score window
• BRZ now anchors peg-score tracking to its July 19, 2019 launch date instead of a March 2025 supply-history coverage artifact

Impact Notes

• Fresh direct native-peg quotes can now veto, sustain, or resolve live depeg state for supported EUR/CHF/GBP/JPY/SGD/AUD/CAD/BRL/IDR/TRY/ZAR/PHP/MXN/RUB/CNH-style fiat pegs instead of remaining effectively BRL-only
• Pending confirmation prefers that same direct native quote first whenever CoinGecko exposes the matching fiat pair, reducing false confirmations from USD/FX reference drift
• Historical backfill now replays supported non-USD fiat assets against direct native fiat price history and a native `1.0` peg when that series exists, which removes large classes of synthetic backfill events caused by USD/FX mismatch

Impact Notes

• BRZ-style depegs can now be vetoed or resolved by a fresh direct BRL quote when the USD/FX-derived signal is back inside threshold or points the other way
• Pending confirmation prefers the fresh direct native-peg quote over a weaker derived USD cross-check when CoinGecko exposes that native pair
• Prevents thin BRL reference mismatches from opening, sustaining, or confirming false depeg rows while still preserving genuine native-peg stress

Impact Notes

• Thin fiat peg groups with fewer than 3 live contributors now require cached FX fallback before they can open, update, or resolve live depeg state
• Fresh non-cached multi-source primary agreement can now close an already-open live event after recovery even if that source mix is still too soft to open new events directly
• Prevents BRL-style peer-median false positives from both opening new live rows and lingering as active depegs after the peg reference normalizes

Impact Notes

• Coins with >= 7 days of mint/burn history now keep the flow signal available even when the latest 24-hour bucket is quiet
• A zero-flow day now contributes zero flow stress instead of silently redistributing the flow weight away from the score
• DEWS cron assembly now reflects the documented mint/burn-baseline semantics for mature tracked coins

Impact Notes

• DEX-assisted live recovery now requires at least two corroborating protocol-level DEX groups inside threshold, not just one trusted aggregate row
• Large challenger pools can veto ambiguous-primary DEX recoveries when they still show the old depeg direction
• New-event suppression and other aggregate-DEX-driven state mutations now share that stricter corroboration policy, reducing synthetic split events on chronically depegged coins

Impact Notes

• Same-direction DEX disagreement is now advisory for ongoing events instead of forcing a synthetic recovery boundary
• Open depeg rows remain continuous until the standard recovery path confirms a sub-threshold resolution
• Prevents repeated event fragmentation on chronically depegged assets when aggregate DEX pricing briefly snaps back toward peg

Impact Notes

• Blacklist signal coverage is now derived from the shared supported blacklist symbol set, so PYUSD and USD1 receive the same DEWS blacklist input treatment as USDC, USDT, PAXG, and XAUT
• Thin non-USD DEWS divergence inputs now use cached `fxFallbackRates` from the stablecoins payload instead of relying only on sparse peer medians
• DEWS input semantics now match the documented blacklist coverage and the live depeg / peg-summary FX-reference path

Impact Notes

• Bootstrap grace now ends after the first successful DEWS publication via a dedicated `dews:bootstrap-complete` sentinel instead of piggybacking on stablecoins-cache freshness
• Only explicitly optional missing tables remain bootstrap-allowed before first success; core dependencies no longer inherit that grace
• Fresh `dex_liquidity` is now required for publication, with rows older than 2 hours treated as a hard degraded source failure

Impact Notes

• Opposite-direction live depeg rows no longer remain active just because the correcting primary price is still confirm_required
• Direction flips from cached, fallback, low-confidence, or stale primary inputs now close the stale live row and insert a replacement pending candidate
• Public active-depeg state stops claiming the wrong side of the peg while confirmation catches up on the corrected move

Impact Notes

• Minimum tracking threshold reduced from 30 to 7 days — coins receive a composite peg score after their first week
• Scores based on 7–30 days of data are labelled 'Early score' in the hero card (amber text with tooltip)
• Report card peg-stability dimension is now rated from day 7; NR only appears for coins with < 7 days of history

Impact Notes

• Cached, fallback, low-confidence, and stale primary prices now require confirmation before they can open or close live depeg state
• Extreme moves no longer get dropped just for crossing the old <0.5x or >2x peg guardrail; they enter a dedicated confirmation lane instead
• peg-summary now exposes price provenance and trust state, and the depeg page consumes backend freshness metadata plus real event-history pagination

Impact Notes

• Depeg suppression/confirmation now requires fresh DEX rows with >= $1M aggregate source TVL
• UI-facing dexPriceCheck exposure now requires fresh data with >= $250K aggregate source TVL
• Thin DEX rows can no longer veto new depeg events or promote pending confirmations on their own

Impact Notes

• coinTrackingStart now returns null when both firstSeen and events are absent
• computePegScoreWithWindow now yields null pegScore for insufficient-history coins
• Prevents false perfect-score outcomes on sparse or incomplete datasets

Impact Notes

• Tracking start formalized as max(firstSeen, fourYearsAgo) with earliest-event fallback
• Per-event severity now applies max(duration penalty, magnitude floor)
• Active-depeg penalty steepened to max(5, absBps/50), capped at 50

Impact Notes

• Added 8th DEWS sub-signal: yield anomaly (weight 0.05)
• Introduced systemic amplifier: DEWS boosted up to +30% when PSI < 75
• Cron now reads yield_data.warning_signals and latest PSI sample before scoring

Impact Notes

• avg_pool_stress is now consumed as native 0-100 (removed erroneous x100)
• Pool component returned to intended weighting and magnitude
• Reduced false high-band classifications caused by scale inflation

Impact Notes

• Introduced DEWS base model with 7 sub-signals and weighted-redistribution scoring
• Threat bands established: CALM, WATCH, ALERT, WARNING, DANGER
• compute-dews cron writes rolling stress_signals and daily stress_signal_history snapshots

Impact Notes

• Lookback boundary corrected from min(firstSeen, fourYearsAgo) to max(...)
• Peg-time and severity now computed against realistic coin lifetime bounds
• Young-coin scores became less artificially inflated

Impact Notes

• Pending rows with invalid peg_reference are dropped before confirmation math
• Detection now rejects non-finite peg references before bps computation
• Pending confirmation mutations are batched atomically for consistent state transitions

Impact Notes

• >= $1B coins now route through depeg_pending before promotion to depeg_events
• Secondary agreement uses CoinGecko and/or DEX with a 50% threshold bar
• sync-stablecoins now runs detectDepegEvents and confirmPendingDepegs sequentially each cycle

Impact Notes

• computePegScoreWithWindow introduced a 4-year tracking cap
• Detail-page peg scores became explicitly lookback-bounded
• Boundary logic was later corrected in v3.2 for firstSeen direction

Impact Notes

• Severity penalty changed from sqrt-based to linear (peakBps/100 scaling)
• Added spreadPenalty from event-magnitude standard deviation (cap 15)
• Composite became: 0.5*pegPct + 0.5*severity - activePenalty - spreadPenalty

Impact Notes

• Non-USD depeg threshold raised to 150 bps (USD remained 100 bps)
• Cleanup migration removed legacy non-USD events below 150 bps
• Ongoing events auto-close after sustained DEX disagreement (30m+, >=$1M TVL)

Impact Notes

• Added active-depeg penalty to peg score, then introduced a minimum floor
• Merged overlapping depeg intervals to prevent pegPct double-counting
• Detection now closes orphan open events and tracks open state by event ID

Impact Notes

• Launched computePegScore baseline (peg time + severity blend)
• Introduced detectDepegEvents cron pipeline with live open/close/update logic
• Added duplicate-open-event merge and new-event DEX disagreement suppression