Redemption Backstops

Modeled redemption-route coverage for tracked stablecoins. This subsystem estimates how credibly a holder can exit to par or near-par outside secondary-market DEX liquidity, then exposes both a standalone snapshot API and an effective-exit input for report-card liquidity scoring.

Methodology Versioning

• Current methodology version: v4.06
• Public methodology anchor: /methodology/#safety-scores-methodology
• Canonical source files: shared/lib/redemption-backstops.ts, shared/lib/redemption-backstop-configs/*, shared/lib/redemption-backstop-scoring.ts, shared/lib/redemption-backstop-version.ts

Latest v4.06 update: fxSAVE now uses fresh ERC-4626 live redemption-capacity telemetry from the vault's idle fxSP balance instead of the prior low-confidence 20% heuristic strategy-buffer estimate.

There is no standalone changelog page yet. The public methodology link currently points at the Safety Scores section because redemption backstops feed the report-card liquidity dimension.

Coverage

Configured coverage is defined statically behind the thin facade in shared/lib/redemption-backstops.ts, with route-family modules under shared/lib/redemption-backstop-configs/.

• Configured coins: 311
• Route families: 152 offchain-issuer, 61 stablecoin-redeem, 41 collateral-redeem, 38 queue-redeem, 10 psm-swap, 9 basket-redeem
• No discovery layer: only coins present in REDEMPTION_BACKSTOP_CONFIGS are modeled

The config registry is validated at module load time against TRACKED_META_BY_ID, so unknown IDs fail fast during build/test/runtime startup.

npm run check:redemption-backstops -- --report <path> writes per-config audit rows with both the literal configured capacityBasis and the resolved runtime-style resolvedCapacityBasis. Reserve-sync rows use the tracked adapter's direct/proxy redemption-telemetry declaration when resolving that audit basis. The report also includes capacityFallbackSource for reserve-sync fallback ratios/USD buffers and dailyLimitUsd when a static model caps same-day capacity, so review queues can distinguish route-family defaults from explicit fallback or daily-limit constraints.

Cron Schedule

• Pattern: 11 */4 * * *
• Function: syncRedemptionBackstops(db, signal)
• File: worker/src/cron/sync-redemption-backstops.ts
• Trigger order: runs after sync-live-reserves in the 4-hourly reserve lane (worker/src/handlers/scheduled/hourly-live-reserves.ts)

The cron reads:

1. The strict stablecoins cache via loadStablecoinsCache(...)
2. The latest DEX liquidity snapshot via loadDexLiquiditySnapshot(db) so both the liquidity map and freshness can be reused
3. A preloaded map of the latest authoritative reserve snapshot metadata for routes that use live reserve telemetry for capacity or fee inputs

No external HTTP calls happen during the redemption-backstop pass itself; any live reserve telemetry is reused from D1.

Status semantics:

• ok when every configured route resolves to a usable scored row and the DEX liquidity input used for effective-exit context is fresh, when the only unresolved rows are a tiny missing-capacity tail within the current tolerance budget (ceil(configured * 1%)), or when current market evidence intentionally marks a route impaired
• degraded when at least one row is written but any configured route fails, is missing from cache, hits a non-missing-capacity/non-impaired unresolved state, the missing-capacity tail exceeds that tolerance budget, or the reused DEX liquidity snapshot is stale or missing
• error when zero routes resolve to a usable scored row because of route failures, cache misses, blocking unresolved states, or all configured routes missing capacity

Cron metadata includes synced, resolved, unresolved, unresolvedMissingCapacity, unresolvedCritical, availabilityDegraded, missingCapacityOkThreshold, coverageRatio, failed, configured, dynamic, estimated, static, liquidityStale, severeActiveDepegThresholdBps, registry/run manifest fields (registryHash, familyCounts, strongProxyCount, heuristicCount, validatorVersion, configMethodologyVersion, v4ScoringParametersHash), and route-status producer fields (routeStatusProducer, routeStatusProducerFetches), plus capped failedIds, availabilityDegradedIds, or missingFromCache when relevant. availabilityDegraded/availabilityDegradedIds are row-level route-availability signals and do not by themselves degrade the cron run.

Scoring Model

Component Weights

Defined in shared/lib/redemption-backstop-scoring.ts:

If capacityScore is unavailable, computeRedemptionBackstopScore() returns null and the route is treated as unrated.

Route-Family Caps

Some route families are intentionally capped even when their component mix scores higher:

An optional per-config totalScoreCap can apply an additional config-cap.

Effective Exit Score

computeEffectiveExitScore() uses a capacity-aware best-path model to combine modeled redemption quality with observable DEX liquidity:

• Model exit size defaults to min(max(circulatingSupplyUsd × 0.05, 100_000), 25_000_000).
• Redemption contribution is multiplied by min(1, currentExecutableCapacityUsd / modeledExitSizeUsd) when current capacity is known.
• Redemption contribution is also discounted by model confidence (high = 1, medium = 0.75, low = 0.35) when v4 options are present.
• If both DEX and redemption exist, the best path wins. The 0.10 diversification bonus applies only when routeExitCorrelation = independent-issuer-rail.
• If only DEX liquidity exists: passthrough DEX liquidity
• If only redemption exists: passthrough the capacity/confidence-adjusted redemption score
• If neither exists: null

The redemption-backstop cron materializes raw effectiveExitScore on every resolved row using the last-known DEX liquidity input, even when that input is stale relative to the CRON_INTERVALS["sync-dex-liquidity"] * 2 freshness budget. Stale or missing DEX input still marks the cron run degraded and flips metadata.liquidityStale = true for operational visibility. Report cards then apply their own confidence and availability gating on top, so stale redemption snapshots and low-confidence redemption routes stay visible on redemption surfaces but do not uplift Safety Score liquidity. In v4, eventual-only routes expose eventualRedeemabilityScore for route-quality context but do not create redemption-only Safety liquidity uplift without current executable capacity. Documented offchain issuer eventual routes can contribute only a DEX-gated primary-market bonus, using eventualRedeemabilityScore as the route-quality ceiling while requiring a current DEX liquidity floor.

Severe active downside depegs add a current-exercisability gate on top of the static route score. When an open depeg_events row is directionally below peg with abs(peak_deviation_bps) >= 2500, a static, estimated, live-proxy, issuer/API, queue, or documented-bound redemption route is marked impaired unless it has live-direct dynamic permissionless redemption capacity with atomic or immediate settlement. Severe upside events do not automatically impair a route whose redemption still clears at par into a non-impaired output asset. For configured tracked wrappers whose metadata keeps pegReferenceId === variantOf, downside impairment now also propagates from the parent stablecoin's open severe-depeg row as output-asset impairment. This prevents stale route documentation from producing a strong par-exit score while the market is indicating that broad redemption is not currently clearing.

The effective exit model parameters are surfaced by the methodology.effectiveExitModel field on GET /api/redemption-backstops and reused by report cards.

Route Modeling

Config Registry

Each configured coin declares:

• routeFamily
• accessModel
• settlementModel
• executionModel
• outputAssetType
• capacityModel
• costModel
• optional costModel.feeDescription
• optional routeExitCorrelation
• optional totalScoreCap
• optional notes

The public registry import lives in shared/lib/redemption-backstops.ts. The actual config inventory is split by route family under shared/lib/redemption-backstop-configs/ to keep review and change scopes small.

Capacity Models

Capacity resolution is dispatched in worker/src/lib/redemption-backstop-capacity.ts, with per-model resolvers under worker/src/lib/redemption-backstop-capacity/ (supply-full.ts, supply-ratio.ts, fixed-usd.ts, reserve-sync.ts); redemption-backstop-sources.ts orchestrates the entry build and calls into it.

Rows may include capacityProfile, which separates immediateUsd, dailyLimitUsd, queuedUsd, eventualUsd, scoringUsd, scoringHorizon, and capacityProfileConfidence. Legacy immediateCapacityUsd, immediateCapacityRatio, and capacityScore remain populated for compatibility.

Live reserve adapters can now emit a nested metadata.redemption object for new redemption-specific telemetry. The validator rejects malformed or unsupported redemption telemetry before persistence, including negative capacity, capacity ratios outside 0..1, negative fees, capacity fields from adapters that declare no capacity support, fee fields from adapters that declare no fee support, or direct-capacity tiers emitted by proxy-only adapters. Legacy flat metadata remains readable while existing adapters are migrated to the nested contract.

Sky DAI and USDS now use the live sky-makercore PSM USDC balance as their immediate redeemable bound when that telemetry is fresh, with the prior 33% reviewed heuristic retained only as fallback. cUSD now uses the live cap-vault onchain adapter for bounded current redemption capacity, scoring against unpaused available vault balances rather than full eventual basket redeemability. LUSD now uses the live liquity-v1 onchain adapter for bounded current direct capacity, scoring against TroveManager.getEntireSystemDebt() when the 4-hourly reserve snapshot is fresh and clean rather than the old static full-supply model. BOLD, feUSD, USDQ, and NECT now use the live liquity-v2-branches onchain adapter for bounded current direct capacity, scoring against aggregate ActivePool branch debt when the 4-hourly reserve snapshot is fresh and clean rather than the old static full-supply model. The adapter can also surface branch shutdown/sunsetting as degraded route status. fxUSD now uses f(x)'s protocol pool API debt balances as live proxy capacity, while USDaf uses Asymmetry's timestamped protocol supply data as direct live capacity. JupUSD uses Jupiter's public transparency API for current USDC/USDtb holdings and oracle route-status context, with the previous 10% reviewed buffer retained only as fallback. ERC-4626 single-asset wrappers such as fxSAVE, Spark savings wrappers, sUSDS, sDAI, scrvUSD, sfrxUSD, and stcUSD now use the live adapter's idle underlying ERC-20 balance as current direct redemption capacity when fresh reserve telemetry is available, rather than treating the full wrapper supply as immediately executable. GHO now uses tracked swappable GSM backing as a live lower bound even when reserve sync is degraded solely by aggregated residual issuance outside the configured GSM set, because that warning reflects reserve completeness rather than invalid tracked telemetry. wsrUSD continues to prefer live Reservoir USDC balance telemetry when available, but now falls back to Reservoir's documented 25 bps minimum USDC PSM balance instead of remaining unrated when the live feed lacks a trustworthy source timestamp. Reviewed bounded primary-market liquidity buffers published by protocols or issuers, such as DOLA's USDS PSM share or JupUSD's USDC buffer, can also use documented-bound ratio semantics when the underlying source is explicit enough to avoid pretending the ratio is merely a blind heuristic. Reviewed route docs alone are not enough to promote delta-neutral or strategy-backed rails into documented-bound full-supply semantics; those routes still need either an explicitly published immediate buffer bound or fresh live reserve telemetry.

The resulting row is tagged with one sourceMode:

• dynamic when fresh latest-success authoritative live reserve snapshot metadata is available
• estimated when static supply models or configured reserve-sync fallback ratios are used
• static when the route remains configured but the current snapshot could not resolve a usable score, including failure-safe rows written after per-coin sync errors

Provider / Source Definitions

Provider identifiers are defined in shared/lib/redemption-backstop-providers.ts and describe where the capacity number came from, what confidence defaults apply, and whether the source can ever survive a severe-depeg gate.

reserve-sync-metadata readback can refine confidence to live-direct or live-proxy when the configured adapter declares direct or proxy redemption-capacity telemetry. Proxy and queue telemetry can provide context or lower-bound capacity, but they cannot qualify as severe active-depeg live-direct evidence.

Each row also carries:

• resolutionState:
  • resolved when the route produced a usable score
  • missing-cache when the stablecoins snapshot did not contain the asset or its current supply
  • missing-capacity when the route is configured but current runtime inputs could not produce usable capacity
  • failed when a route-specific resolver failed
  • impaired when the route shape is known but current market or route-availability evidence contradicts broad par redemption; impaired rows have score = null, effectiveExitScore = null, and modelConfidence = low
• routeStatus:
  • open for normal resolved routes without current impairment evidence
  • degraded when the route is currently impaired by market-implied evidence such as a severe active depeg
  • paused, cohort-limited, and unknown are reserved for explicit route-availability sources and backward-compatible legacy rows
  • unknown route status remains a low-confidence signal unless the capacity evidence is direct live telemetry or a source-reviewed documented bound
• routeStatusSource:
  • static-config for normal config-derived status
  • market-implied for the severe active-depeg exercisability gate
  • operator-notice, protocol-api, and onchain are reserved for future current-route evidence sources
  • no operator override or standalone route-status feed is wired in the cron path today; merge precedence is live adapter evidence, then static config, with market-implied severe-depeg impairment applied last unless a strong live-direct route is explicitly open
• holderEligibility:
  • derived from the route access model by default: permissionless onchain routes are any-holder, whitelist routes are whitelisted-primary, issuer API routes are verified-customer, and manual routes are issuer-discretionary
• capacityConfidence:
  • live-direct for live reserve-sync capacity sourced from direct current redemption telemetry
  • live-proxy for live reserve-sync capacity inferred from a live proxy liquidity bucket rather than a protocol-native redemption-limit feed
  • dynamic only as a legacy / unresolved reserve-sync bucket when older stored rows lack the richer live-capacity classification
  • documented-bound when a bounded model is explicitly configured that way after source review, including reviewed full-supply redeemability where official issuer or protocol terms establish eventual redemption of outstanding supply
  • heuristic by default for supply-full, supply-ratio, and inferred legacy rows without stronger evidence
• Reserve-sync capacity now ignores degraded snapshots, weak fee-only adapters, and snapshots that do not carry scoring-grade freshness evidence by default. The only exceptions are route-specific lower-bound warning classes that explicitly preserve a trustworthy redeemable-capacity floor while keeping reserve sync itself degraded for completeness review.
• Immutable fully on-chain systems and reviewed direct issuer / direct redeem routes can use documented-bound with eventual-only semantics when protocol mechanics or issuer terms establish full-system redeemability directly, even if no separate immediate buffer is measured
• capacitySemantics:
  • immediate-bounded when the model is intended to represent a current redeemable buffer
  • eventual-only when the route is scored as eventual redeemability rather than immediate same-size liquidity. Report cards generally treat these as visible-only, except documented offchain issuer routes can add a DEX-gated primary-market exit bonus under Safety Score methodology v7.05+
• capacityBasis:
  • typed evidence basis such as issuer-term-redemption, full-system-eventual, psm-balance-share, strategy-buffer, hot-buffer, daily-limit, live-direct-telemetry, or live-proxy-buffer
  • reserve-sync fallback ratios use the configured basis when present, otherwise route-family defaults such as psm-balance-share, strategy-buffer, or hot-buffer; they are not labeled live-proxy-buffer unless live proxy telemetry produced the capacity
• Live reserve telemetry fields are additive display/provenance context, not Safety Score eligibility by themselves:
  • capacityKind describes the adapter-declared evidence shape, such as live-direct-bounded, live-queue, live-proxy-validated, documented-bound, documented-eventual, or heuristic
  • freshnessKind describes the adapter-declared redemption freshness evidence, such as verified-source-timestamp, same-run-onchain, same-run-api, reviewed-static, or unverified
  • sourceTimestamp, sourceUrls, settlementDelaySec, queueDepthUsd, dailyLimitUsd, minRedeemUsd, and liveHolderEligibility are carried through the API/UI when emitted by live reserve adapters
• feeConfidence:
  • fixed for bounded bps schedules
  • formula for disclosed formulas such as Liquity-style base-rate fees
  • undisclosed-reviewed when docs were reviewed but only descriptive fee information is available
• feeModelKind:
  • fixed-bps, formula, documented-variable, or undisclosed-reviewed
• modelConfidence:
  • high, medium, or low rollups used by the API and detail page to communicate fidelity
  • low for heuristic-capacity routes, unresolved rows, impaired rows, unclear holder eligibility, stale docs without current route-status evidence, or unknown route status without direct live telemetry or source-reviewed documented-bound capacity
  • confidenceDetails can expose the component evidence scores and rollup reasons
• routeExitCorrelation:
  • independent-issuer-rail, same-stablecoin-pool-backing, same-protocol-liquidity, wrapper-to-parent-dependency, or unknown
  • only independent-issuer-rail earns the v4 effective-exit diversification bonus

Docs / Notes

• docs prefers explicit config-reviewed sources first (docs[] + reviewedAt), then live-reserve display links for reserve-sync routes, then the coin metadata's proofOfReserves.url, then preferred public links (Docs, Proof of Reserve, Transparency, Website)
• docs.provenance distinguishes reviewed route docs from fallback live-reserve, proof-of-reserves, or generic project-link sources so detail pages do not overstate evidence quality
• docs.reviewedAt is the route-review date, not a claim that the rendered fallback link itself was the reviewed source; the detail card now shows review date and provenance together
• docs.sources[] records structured provenance for what the linked source supports (route, capacity, fees, access, settlement)
• The registry check ratchets aggregate source-support coverage and emits per-config warnings when a documented-bound capacity route lacks explicit route or capacity support. These warnings are backlog controls, not hard CI errors, until the remaining documented-bound source-support gaps are cleaned up.
• feeDescription carries docs-backed fee text when the route fee is fixed, conditional, dynamic, flat-fee-based, or publicly undisclosed
• notes merges config notes plus runtime notes such as stale reserve metadata expiry, conservative fallback use, or live fee fallback
• capsApplied records any score caps triggered during scoring

Cost Modeling

• feeBps is still used only when the route has a bounded fixed basis-point fee that can be represented cleanly in the score model
• Formula-based routes can also populate feeBps from fresh latest-success live reserve snapshot metadata when the protocol exposes a current on-chain redemption rate; the route still remains labeled as feeModelKind = formula
• Reviewed fixed-fee routes may also consume fresh authoritative live fee telemetry when the protocol exposes the current active redemption fee and the static config is only a safe fallback bound
• feeModelKind distinguishes fixed-fee routes from documented formulas, documented variable schedules, and reviewed-but-undisclosed fee rails
• feeDescription is used to surface:
  • dynamic formulas such as Liquity-style min 50 bps + baseRate
  • conditional fee schedules such as borrower-vs-non-borrower redemptions
  • flat minimums or bank/network charges that do not map cleanly to one global bps number
  • cases where public docs were reviewed but no numeric redemption-fee schedule is published
• If live formula telemetry is missing, the route falls back to the reviewed-formula bucket rather than pretending a fixed fee is known
• costScore uses the active-user scenario by default when v4 fee-shape inputs are present; optional costScenarioScores exposes retail, active-user, and institutional route-size scores

Database Schema

Migration: worker/migrations/0000_baseline.sql in the current post-squash tree, plus 0094_redemption_backstop_runs.sql for completed-run snapshot manifests and 0120_redemption_backstop_run_rows.sql for the manifest-scoped current row store. Historical introduction lives in the pre-squash lineage recorded in worker/migrations/MANIFEST.md.

redemption_backstop

Current snapshot table, one row per configured stablecoin.

Key columns:

• stablecoin_id — PK
• score
• effective_exit_score
• dex_liquidity_score
• access_score
• settlement_score
• execution_certainty_score
• capacity_score
• output_asset_quality_score
• cost_score
• route_family
• access_model
• settlement_model
• execution_model
• output_asset_type
• provider
• source_mode
• immediate_capacity_usd
• immediate_capacity_ratio
• fee_bps
• queue_enabled
• updated_at
• methodology_version
• details_json
• snapshot_run_id

details_json now also stores routeFamily, provider/source provenance, immediate-capacity fields, optional live telemetry fields, fee fields, resolutionState, routeStatus, routeStatusSource, routeStatusReason, routeStatusReviewedAt, holderEligibility, capacityConfidence, capacityBasis, capacitySemantics, feeConfidence, feeModelKind, modelConfidence, and feeDescription alongside docs, notes, and capsApplied, so richer runtime context survives current-snapshot and history writes without a schema migration.

snapshot_run_id links current rows to a completed redemption_backstop_runs manifest when written by the post-0094 worker. API and report-card readers prefer the latest valid completed run and filter current rows to that generation. If the newest completed manifest is incomplete or its rows are unreadable, readers try recent earlier completed runs before returning 503. If no completed manifest exists but the manifest table has run records and the current table contains rows with a non-null snapshot_run_id, readers return 503 instead of treating those partial manifested rows as legacy data. Legacy rows without a completed run remain readable as a fallback during rollout and local bootstrap only when the current table has no manifested rows.

redemption_backstop_history

Daily history table keyed by (stablecoin_id, snapshot_date).

Stored fields:

• score
• effective_exit_score
• dex_liquidity_score
• updated_at
• methodology_version
• details_json
• snapshot_run_id

The cron writes immutable redemption_backstop_run_rows first, writes daily history, marks the run manifest completed only after the immutable row count and bounds are valid, and then refreshes the legacy current mirror. Current-mirror failures are recorded as completed-run warnings instead of making partial current rows authoritative.

redemption_backstop_runs

Completed-run manifest table used to prevent mixed-generation current snapshots from being treated as fresh.

Stored fields:

• run_id — unique generated run identifier
• started_at
• completed_at
• status (running, completed, or failed)
• expected_count
• written_count
• methodology_version
• min_updated_at
• max_updated_at
• metadata_json

The sync inserts a running row before writing immutable run rows, writes history after those rows are complete, and marks the manifest completed only after the immutable row count and update bounds are valid. If immutable row, history, or completion writes fail after the manifest is started, the writer best-effort marks the manifest failed with phase-specific failure metadata before rethrowing. The legacy current mirror is refreshed only after the completed run exists; mirror failures are recorded as completed-run warnings because readers use immutable run rows as the authoritative snapshot source. Readers prefer the latest valid completed run, use its max_updated_at for response freshness, and use its methodology_version for API methodology attribution. If no completed run exists, they fall back to legacy MAX(updated_at) behavior only for current rows that are not tied to any manifested run.

Run manifests and immutable run rows are pruned after successful writes with a 14-day retention window. The prune keeps the just-written run and the latest completed run even when either is older than the cutoff, so current API reads and legacy fallback constraints stay intact. Retention failures are recorded as completed-run warnings instead of failing the already-written snapshot.

API Endpoint

GET /api/redemption-backstops

File: worker/src/api/redemption-backstops.ts

• Returns 503 with { "error": "Data not yet available" } until at least one 4-hourly sync has written readable rows
• Returns 503 with { "error": "Redemption backstop snapshot unavailable" } when no valid completed run can be read cleanly from immutable run rows or a true legacy current snapshot; partial manifested current rows are not treated as authoritative
• Otherwise returns the current map plus methodology metadata from buildRedemptionBackstopsSnapshot(db), with methodology.version attributed from the latest completed run manifest or latest stored snapshot row for true legacy snapshots, and currentVersion preserved as the live code version
• Cache profile: standard (public, s-maxage=300, max-age=60) with freshness headers based on updatedAt

See API Reference for the exact response shape.

Frontend Consumers

• src/hooks/api-hooks.ts exports useRedemptionBackstops(), wired through FRONTEND_API_QUERY_REGISTRY.redemptionBackstops in src/lib/api-query-registry.ts with the CRON_RESERVE_SYNC producer interval (4-hour reserve lane cadence)
• src/hooks/use-stablecoin-detail-view-model.ts fetches the map and passes the coin-specific entry into the stablecoin detail view model
• src/components/stablecoin-detail/redemption-backstop-card.tsx renders the detail-page card (score badges, route family, source mode, resolution state, route status, model confidence, access/settlement/output/capacity blocks, eventual-only vs immediate-bounded capacity messaging, explicit redemption-fee summaries keyed off feeModelKind, reviewed docs/source context, component subscores, and contextual methodology hint / footer actions)
• src/lib/stablecoin-detail-view-model.ts includes redemption freshness in the detail-page stale-query rail
• worker/src/lib/report-cards-snapshot-card.ts injects redemptionBackstopScore, redemptionRouteFamily, and immediate-capacity fields into rawInputs, and shared/lib/report-cards.ts consumes the score in scoreLiquidity()
• /coverage consumes useRedemptionBackstops() through src/lib/coverage/redemption.ts. It distinguishes scored route-family states from low-confidence heuristic routes, resolved-but-unscored routes, configured-but-unrated routes, impaired routes, no route, and Data n/a feed-unavailable states, so unresolved, eventual-only, impaired, or weakly evidenced rows do not inflate public strong-coverage counts. The Redemption quick filter includes configured/resolved route states but excludes Data n/a.

There is currently no dedicated list page or standalone public methodology section for redemption backstops; the primary user-facing surface is the stablecoin detail page plus the report-card liquidity dimension. Contextual hints on those surfaces currently deep-link into the Safety Scores methodology section where effective-exit logic is documented.

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